Peace processes hold the promise of resolving civil conflicts but can paradoxically complicate matters by increasing the likelihood of fragmentation within insurgent groups. This article examines the influence of foreign sponsorship on insurgent fragmentation, specifically addressing the question: How does military support from a rival foreign state affect insurgent fragmentation during peace processes? Utilizing Putnam’s two-level game framework, I argue that the risk of fragmentation escalates when an insurgent leader struggles to balance internal faction dynamics with external relations with foreign sponsors. The theory is tested through a quantitative analysis of a dataset encompassing all civil wars fought between 1975 and 2011, alongside an in-depth case study of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army’s split in 1991. This paper offers both empirical and theoretical insights into the frequently overlooked role of external interference in civil wars, challenging the conventional wisdom that insurgent fragmentation is a matter of internal group dynamics. It highlights the strategic interactions between insurgent groups and foreign states, demonstrating their substantial impact on the trajectory of civil conflicts.
Speaker Bio
Sanjida Amin is a PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto, specializing in foreign sponsorship of insurgent groups, insurgent-state relations, and the international dimensions of civil war. She is currently a Fulbright Visiting Fellow at the Center for International and Security Studies (CISSM) at the University of Maryland, College Park, and a graduate researcher at the Post-Conflict Reintegration (Postcor) Lab at the University of Toronto.
Sanjida’s book project investigates how external support from rival states influences internal conflict dynamics, particularly by contributing to insurgent fragmentation during peace negotiations. She had conducted extensive fieldwork in Khartoum, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Washington, DC, engaging with former insurgent commanders, regional mediators, journalists, and subject matter experts. Her research aims to inform more effective peacebuilding practices in Eastern Africa and beyond.