After President Joe Biden announced he would withdraw from the race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee for president, the nation's attention turned to one question: who will Harris choose as a running mate?
There are several other questions that will inform her answer, such as whether the VP pick really matters and what would a VP do in a Harris administration.
The best political science says the VP pick doesn't really affect the election outcome—or at least not by much. But this election will probably be decided by a few tens of thousands of votes across several swing states. So key states and constituencies should be a matter of consideration.
The top priority in a VP pick is to do no harm to your own campaign. A running mate should appear credibly presidential. When a presidential candidate chooses their running mate, they are effectively saying that they believe their running mate is of presidential timber. Picks who are clearly unqualified for the presidency, like John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin in 2008, should be avoided at all costs.
Enough preliminaries, everyone wants names! Who will Harris pick?
At the top of the list are a bunch of governors from swing states: Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear isn't from a swing state, but he is a Democrat who won three statewide elections in deep-red Kentucky. Finally, Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly would add star power (no pun intended) to the ticket.
All of these options are terrific politicians with impressive backgrounds. Some of them have downsides, however. Selecting Kelly would trigger a special election for his Senate seat—which the Democrats can ill afford to lose. Kelly has also been a senator for only four years and has not held prior elected office.
Although he is an extraordinarily skilled politician, Shapiro's experience is relatively limited. He has only just started his service as governor of Pennsylvania, although he previously served two terms as the state's attorney general.
Gretchen Whitmer is beloved in Michigan and might guarantee keeping that must-win state blue. But given that Harris will be the first woman of color heading a national ticket, she may play it safe and select a white male. (Personally, I don't agree with that logic, but it is a bit of conventional wisdom.)
That leaves governors Beshear and Cooper, both centrists within the party, but obviously on board with key party issues like reproductive rights.
Cooper might put North Carolina into play. He's won six straight statewide elections in North Carolina—four as attorney general and two as governor. Cooper is 67, which is a double-edged sword. He may appear as the elder statesman, an adult in the room in contrast with the young and inexperienced J.D. Vance. But given that the Democratic Party just rebelled against an elder president, his age could just as easily be a liability.
Beshear might not put Kentucky into play, but the governor of the Bluegrass state could provide an excellent Democratic counterpoint to Vance and his Appalachian persona. Beshear is only 46 but is already in his second term as governor.
There are many other Democrats who would be plausible VP picks, both in state houses and in the Senate. Cory Booker, for example, is charismatic and well into his second term in the Senate, so he has national experience.
Given the surfeit of good VP picks, there is another all-important factor. After being presidential, probably the most important element in the decision is Harris' own comfort level with the person. The president-VP relationship is often a shotgun marriage. A bit of personal affinity goes a long way.
Harris knows Roy Cooper well because they served as state attorneys general at the same time. Harris' friendship with the late Beau Biden when he was Delaware's AG made her an attractive pick for Biden.
Personal affinity is extremely important, because a president needs a VP they can trust. The vice president is a unique counselor to the president who can bring together policy and political factors.
The presidency, even in times of peace and plenty, is a demanding office. Today, given an array of international challenges, hyper-partisanship, and a rising specter of domestic political violence, any president will need all the help they can get. Vice President Harris should remember the most important maxim—pick a running mate with the wisdom and experience to be president.
Aaron Mannes is a Lecturer and Research Associate at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, where he did his PhD dissertation on the national security role of the vice president. His ongoing research on the vice presidency can be found here. X: @awmannes
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.