The January 16, 2024, missile and drone strike by Iran against alleged sanctuaries of Jaish al-Adl inside Pakistan’s province of Baluchistanprovoked a short crisis between Islamabad and Tehran, culminating in retaliation by Pakistan on January 18, 2024. The lack of close coordination on their shared frontier, amidst severe issues of drug trafficking from Afghanistan, terrorism in Baluchistan, and Iranian concerns about infiltration, undermined a mutual understanding between these two countries. Pakistan was entirely surprised, never having been attacked by Iran before. Despite the strike during the election campaign to determine Pakistan’s next governing party and executive, Islamabad resisted retaliation until it failed to elicit a conciliatory explanation from Tehran. Iran’s attack was most likely the result of a hardline foreign policy initiative decided and implemented by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)as part of its escalating conflict with Israel and the defence of the Houthis in Yemen. Following Pakistan’s measured and proportionate response, Tehran and Islamabad, encouraged by China, the US, Russia, and Türkiye, diplomatically defused the tension, and bilateral relations normalised.
School Authors: Nasir Mehmood
Other Authors: Julian Spencer-Churchill