Nelson-Rowntree, X., Stotland, T., Behrendt, J., Bertram, C., Cui, R. (October, 2026). “Canada’s Climate Crossroads: An Evaluation of National Emissions Trajectories across Changing Policy Priorities.” Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland. 26 pp.
Since early 2025, Canada has been navigating a new economic and political environment defined by a shifting foreign policy dynamic with the United States and new leadership in both countries. This report examines the impact of these political changes on Canadian climate policy, utilizing four modeled pathways scenarios to understand how Canada can achieve greater greenhouse gas reductions. Scenario results show that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drop by only 25% from 2005 to 2035, falling short of the 45-50% reduction articulated in Canada’s NDC. However, investing further in renewable energy and electrification infrastructure by strengthening existing policies can achieve a scenario closer to its 2035 target, leading to a GHG emissions reduction of 33% as an upper bound. Achieving the NDC would require new and enhanced policy actions, including limiting oil and gas expansion.