Natural gas use in the U.S. building sector in global low carbon pathways

Abstract: Achieving the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global average warming to well below 2°C, and pursuing
efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C, implies that global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced to net
zero this century. A wide range of studies have examined the implications of meeting these global goals for energy use and emissions at the country and sector level. We drew on results of those studies, and
carried out new modeling analyses, to assess the outlook for the use of natural gas in residential and
commercial buildings (“buildings”) in the U.S. in scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement goals.
Broadly, we find continued but declining natural gas use in buildings in these scenarios. Pathways of building gas use cover a wide range, with the speed and extent of reductions strongly influenced by the
overall U.S. emissions goal, progress made in other sectors, and the use of negative emissions
technologies. Regional gas use in buildings may vary as well due to differences in climate and other
factors.