Abstract
Indonesia’s energy and food security policy priorities include achieving a biodiesel fuel blending ratio of 50% (B50) and self-sufficiency in rice production through the development of nationally planned food estates. However, these initiatives pose substantial challenges, including the threats of mass deforestation, land conversion and emissions, as well as competition between food and energy crops. Here we assess the potential land-use and emissions implications of meeting Indonesia’s ambitious biodiesel targets and rice production goals. Using an improved high-resolution land cover map, multicriteria evaluation and production scenario modelling, we analyse the spatial trade-offs between forest conservation, food security and biofuel expansion. Our findings indicate that achieving the biodiesel B50 target by 2030 will require extensive land conversion, including 4.85–8.55 million hectares of land, while efforts to achieve rice self-sufficiency could convert up to 2.3 million hectares, with notable overlap between food and energy production zones. Associated emissions—360–3,753 MtCO2e for oil palm and 509–1,297 MtCO2e for rice—could surpass historic emissions events, undermining Indonesia’s climate commitments. This research underscores the need for more integrated land-use planning balancing economic development with environmental sustainability and calls for enhanced policy frameworks that mitigate trade-offs between food and energy production.